On The Uncertainties of Climatology

There are three different kinds of statistical uncertainties that Climatology must deal with to predict the climate effectively:

1. The causes of climate change, and how much is anthropomorphic:

There are three main causes of global warming: solar activity, greenhouse gases, and geothermal activity.

a. It is known that solar activity runs in cycles which vary in temperature range and intensity, With the hottest cycle far exceeding our current mean temperature. Because we don't have enough information on solar cycles to accurately predict the effects of the sun on the warming of the earth, it is difficult to assess how much, if any of the earth's temperature is solar, and how much comes from geothermal/anthropomorphic sources.

b. While our understanding of geothermal reactions is fairly well-developed, its effect in climate change is ill-studied, required additional research to accurately assess its effect on the climate.

c. Historical knowledge of temperature changes over the past few centuries have shown that even in periods of time where there was no human-generated greenhouse gases, The earth's temperature reached record-highs. Since climate predictions are based on correlative, as supposed to causal relationships, there is a great deal of uncertainty over the actual causes of global warming.

d. Since there are many other kinds of greenhouse gases, and other sources of global warming which are ill-studied or even unknown, it is impossible to accurately assess the net impact of the various sources to the increase in the mean temperature, much less determine the actual human contribution.

2. The positive impact, of any of the reduction/elimination of anthropomorphic greenhouse gases on the mean temperature

a. There is no precedent to show that reducing carbon emissions has any significant impact on climate change, and the evidence showing C02 emissions to increase the earth's temperature is mostly correlative. So we are basically guessing (albeit an educated guess) that major carbon reductions will lower the earth's temperature.

b. If the sun's warming cycle ends soon, the reduction of emissions now would be the equivalent of shaving one's head to cool off....right before the  winter season starts. Reduction in carbon emissions does not account for uncertainties of the changes of the solar cycle.

3. The feasibility of environmental reform, and its effectiveness in the net improvement of human quality of life:

a. The resources required to reduce carbon emissions are diverted by other possibly more important matters, such as AIDS/HIV/cancer research, terraforming and modernizing undeveloped countries, the reduction of accidental death and sickness, etc. Until there is evidence that the need for greenhouse gas reduction is greater than these other concerns, it amounts to little more than a very expensive science experiment.

b. Effective environmental reform requires the support of the politicians and citizens of countries, particularly countries producing large amounts of emissions, such as the United States and China. The human factor is the biggest source of uncertainty overall, due to the complexity and diversity of humans.

c. The cost of large-scale reforms, especially if done too fast, can destabilize a country and its economy, as has been the case with many overambitious countries (most notably the Soviet Union, the Roman Empire, and possibly (in progress) the European Union.
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In addition to these issues, carbon emission / climate measuring instruments remains limited in their scope, scalability, and accuracy. Considering that even with modern weather instruments, meteorologists still can't predict same-day weather much more accurately (or specifically) than tarot card readers, long-term assessments of the climate have a great deal of uncertainty.

It's for this reason that many people, both learned and laymen, consider Climatology the voodoo of the science world- good at guessing, but lacking the tools of precedent for the consistent reproduction of results. Until Climatology becomes more reliable in its predictions, it'll be about as real of a science as economic theory.