Why Mitt Romney Has Not Clinched the Nomination

What the lamestream media told you

Mitt Romney has clinched the Republican nomination for president with a win in the Texas primary.

The Associated Press delegate count shows that Romney surpassed the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination during Tuesday's primary. Early returns show Romney posting a big win in Texas.

What they neglected to tell you

The Associate Press's delegate count is at best an educated guess, and at worst pure speculation.

Here are the facts:

1. Mitt Romney has 591 legally bound delegates. The rest of the delegates are up for grabs, and it's anyone's guess who they belong to.

2. Ron Paul has been getting the majority of delegates in most states, and if crowd enthusiasm is a metric of delegates (which it has been thus far), Ron Paul is extremely likely to win the majority of unbound delegates in Texas.

3. Even if Mitt Romney miraculously got all of the bound delegates, he still would be far from clinching the nomination. The numbers just do not add up, it is mathematically impossible (not astronomical, impossible) For Romney to clinch the nomination at this point. There aren't enough total bound delegates available.

In summary, the AP and all the media outlets who listen to them are either complete idiots or liars. Mitt Romney has not clinched anything, in fact he is so far from clinching the nomination, that Ron Paul may very well have the majority of delegates.

Now, moving onto Texas:

*The delegate allocation system for Texas according to 2012 rules are as follows: 


Texas delegate breakdown:

155 total delegates
44 at-large delegates
108 congressional delegates
3 automatic delegates

At-large allocation: Up for grabs, completely unbound.

Congressional district allocation:
As Rule 38, Section 8 of the Republican Party of Texas rules describes, delegates are allocated to candidates in proportion to that candidate's share of the statewide vote.2 There is no threshold for receiving delegates. However, there is a threshold to receiving the assignment of particular delegates. If a candidate does not receive 20% of the vote statewide, then that candidate is not eligible for congressional district delegates unless he or she receives at least 20% of the vote in any given congressional district. All that really means is that a candidate under 20% statewide and 20% in all congressional districts will gain statewide, at-large delegates to "fill out" their allotment of delegates. Meanwhile, candidates, say Mitt Romney, well over 20% both statewide and on the congressional district will gather the assignment of the most delegates from the congressional district level as a means of completing the full allocation based on the overall statewide vote while the candidates further back will be assigned at-large delegates.

Election of these delegates will take place at the state convention on June 7-9.

Automatic delegate allocation:
The three Texas automatic delegates are free to pledge themselves to a candidate of their choosing. The national committee positions are elected to four years terms at one of the state conventions held every two even-numbered years. Those positions are term-limited after two consecutive terms. That means that committeeman and RNC legal counsel Bill Crocker -- serving since 2004 -- will be replaced in his role as committeeman at the state convention. Committeewoman Borah Van Dormolen was elected in a runoff in 2009 and is still in her first term. The party chairperson is elected every two years and can serve no more than four consecutive terms. Current chair, Steve Munisteri, was first elected to the post in 2010. He will be up for reelection at the state convention but will not be term limited.

(excerpted from http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/05/2012-republican-delegate-allocation_29.html)

For the real delegate count for the 2012 election, see this site: http://thereal2012delegatecount.com